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Let's presume Sir Keir Starmer wants to win the next election. Let's likewise presume he has no desire to be changed as Prime Minister in the next year or two by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.
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He's a politician, after all, and political leaders enjoy power - Starmer more than many, I would think. I likewise recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and must be able to weigh up the opportunities of any policy succeeding.
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After the battles, compromises and embarrassments included in accomplishing high workplace, Starmer has no intention of tossing everything away. Why, then, does he reveal every sign of doing so?
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On the single concern that might matter most to a bulk of voters, he is hurtling towards certain disaster, while denying himself any prospect of an escape route. I mean the boats stumbling upon the Channel.
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Varieties of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 per cent on the exact same period last year. An analysis by The Times, using similar modelling as Border Force, forecasts that 50,000 individuals will cross the Channel in little boats in 2025. That would be an annual record - and a stonking debacle for Sir Keir.
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Peering into his mind, I reckon there are 2 main possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is deluding himself. He really thinks numbers will come down once the measures he has taken start to work.
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If Starmer still thinks that his policies - tossing hundreds of millions at the French authorities, [improving intelligence](https://www.qbrpropertylimited.com) and using enhanced police powers - will reduce the numbers, that actually is the accomplishment of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already beginning poorly to realise that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have actually decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A .
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There have been 2 such examples in current days. Having stated in an online post on Monday that he felt 'angry' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he think the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.
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Sir Keir Starmer now has absolutely nothing formidable in his locker, Stephen Glover writes
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Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent less than in the previous year
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He boasted that 'practically 30,000 people' had actually been removed from the UK by this Government. Sounds good. But in reality this figure refers to all types of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent less than in the previous year.
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A lie? Good God no! We mustn't implicate Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of telling deliberate fibs. Shall we opt for an analytical sleight of hand?
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The other instance of the [Government](https://areafada.com) not being entirely directly was the Home Office's claim previously today that there have actually been more migrants this year because of [pleasant weather](https://muigaicommercial.com). These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.
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But an analysis by my coworker David Barrett in the other day's Mail shows that in temperate May last year there were 21 'red days' but just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 fewer than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though just 3,007 [migrants](https://shubhniveshpropmart.com) were recorded crossing the Channel.
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The most possible description is that last May and June the Government's plan to send unlawful migrants to Rwanda had finally cleared persistent judicial obstruction. Some, at least, were prevented from crossing the Channel for worry of being packed off to the central African country.
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The [Rwanda plan](https://meza-realestate.com) was far from ideal - it was costly, and liable to legal difficulty since the country has an authoritarian government - but at least it had some possibility of discouraging migrants. The inbound Labour Government tossed away its only possible ways of suppressing the boats.
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Good for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will undertake to resurrect a strategy strikingly similar to the Rwandan one.
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Starmer now has nothing powerful in his locker. Literally absolutely nothing. He can offer additional millions to the French government but it won't make much, if any, difference. French cops will still loll around on beaches, [thinking](https://turk.house) about the sand castles they made as children, as they enjoy migrant boats setting off for Dover.
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The fact is that the French will never strain themselves because every migrant who leaves their shores is one less migrant for them to fret about. It is naive to picture that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.
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STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft male who can not comprehend the real evil Britain is facing
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Nor will Sir Keir's idea of improving intelligence and law enforcement be decisive. As for Labour's reported intention to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude phony asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it ends up being law it is not likely to have much result on total numbers.
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Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper beginning to panic as they understand they don't have a single policy likely to fulfil their guarantee of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well ought to be.
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Three weeks ago, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return centers' only minutes before his Albanian equivalent, [standing](https://muigaicommercial.com) a few feet away, dismissed any cooperation.
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Maybe the Government will persuade the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to set up some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and people will question why Sir Keir cancelled an arrangement that he is at least partly attempting to restore.
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I have actually no particular dream to throw Starmer a lifeline however, as I have actually recommended before, there's one possible course out of the hole he has actually dug for himself - though it would take enormous decision and guts for him to take it.
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There are lots of [unoccupied British](https://inpattaya.net) [islands](https://tehranoffers.com) off our coast and further afield. Pick among them. Create a camp comparable to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees during the War. Build hundreds of huts - rather than setting up less sturdy camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.
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Recruit medical professionals and authorities to [assess claims](https://inmocosta.com) faster than takes place at present - and then return most [migrants](https://mspdeveloper.com) to where they originated from. The cost of [establishing](https://onestopagency.org) such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion spent last year on housing migrants and asylum [applicants](https://vision-constructors.com).
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Can anyone inform me why not? Few migrants would fancy kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our guest - on a potentially windy island instead of in a four-star hotel.
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Granted, in order to ward off vexatious legal difficulties we 'd probably need to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be a step too far for our careful Prime Minister.
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But he does not have a better idea. In truth, he hasn't got any ideas at all that are liable to stem the growing numbers of people streaming across the English Channel.
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Things can only worsen - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer actually wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?
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RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting
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